NSE: KALYANKJIL
Investment horizon: FY27–FY29
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25,045 | 35,743 | 43% |
| EBITDA | 1,517 | 2,491 | 64% |
| PAT | 714 | 1,350 | 89% |
| EBITDA margin | 6.1% | 7.0% | +90 bps |
| PAT margin | 2.9% | 3.8% | +90 bps |
| ROCE | 15.9% | 24.3% | Strong improvement |
| ROE | 19.8% | 28.8% | Strong improvement |
Existing stores are generating higher sales.
The company has demonstrated strong same-store growth in recent quarters.
The franchisee provides much of the capital.
Kalyan operates the store and earns the economics.
This allows Kalyan to expand much faster than if it had to fund every store itself.
Good Opportunity:
There are:
- Local family jewellers
- Regional chains
- National chains
- Organised players
- Online brands
Interestingly, younger customers increasingly want:
- Lightweight jewellery
- Daily-wear jewellery
- Online discovery
- Lower-ticket products
- Contemporary designs
Kalyan has a significant Middle East presence.
This provides geographic diversification.
But I wouldn't assign the same valuation to the international business as the Indian business.
Why?
Middle East jewellery demand is affected by:
- Gold prices
- Oil economy
- Geopolitics
- expatriate income
- local consumer confidence
The India business should remain the primary investment thesis.
| Scenario | FY29 EPS | P/E | Indicative FY29 price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | ₹24 | 22x | ₹530 |
| 🟡 Base | ₹30 | 25x | ₹750 |
| 🟢 Bull | ₹35 | 28x | ₹980 |
⭐ Final rating
Business quality: 9/10
3-year growth potential: 9/10
Financial improvement: 8.5/10
Risk: 6.5/10
Valuation at ~₹600: 6.5–7/10
Overall 3-year investment rating: 🟢 8/10
My preferred strategy: ACCUMULATE ON CORRECTIONS rather than chase the stock after a sharp rally.
Note: Not an invitation to invest
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